There has been a large element of self-absorption about the coverage here in Ireland of the race for the high-profile European posts being discussed on the fringes of this week’s Brussels summit.
Only the British news networks, with their Blair obsession, have been more parochial in their focus.
In thinking that we are in contention for one of the new Euro jobs, little old Ireland is again getting notions above its station. Recently reintegrated into the centre of European Union politics, Ireland needs to tread carefully, recognise its limitations and adjust its expectations.
The process of filling the posts of president of the European Council, high representative for Foreign Affairs and in the new European Commission is akin to solving a Rubik’s Cube. Developments in relation to one post have immediate implications for the others. Analysis of this process needs to have more regard to issues of timing, sequencing, and balance, and to the realities of EU politics.
Assuming the Czechs finally ratify the Lisbon Treaty in the next week or so, the Swedes, who currently hold the EU presidency, are anxious to have European Parliament ratification hearings for the new commission nominees in late November. They plan to have them ratified by December 17th and ready to take up office early in the New Year. It’s an ambitious timescale, not least because one of them might fall at the parliamentary fence.
The country which gets the job of high representative does not get a commissioner, so that job must be filled first. For reasons of politics, the foreign representative post and that of president of the council are likely to be filled simultaneously. If a country or European political grouping gets one of these jobs, they cannot get the other.
The right-of-centre European People’s Party is currently the largest group in EU politics. It has a relative majority of 265 seats in the European Parliament, and its member parties are in government in most of the 27 member states. The political reality therefore is that the European People’s Party has a claim on the top job. That’s why speculation about Tony Blair becoming president of the European Council, which was always overblown, has abated in the last 48 hours.
The other political reality is that, if at all possible, the European Council members will select one of their own as president of their council. They will want someone they know personally, who owes their appointment to them. If any of the current prime ministers from the European People’s Party gene pool wants the job, they will get it, leaving no need for the council to resuscitate the political career of some former member of the prime ministers’ club. There are two real current contenders in the ranks, namely Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker and the Netherlands’s Jan Peter Balkenende, the latter of whom is more likely to get the job.
One golden rule for EU jobs of this nature is that candidates must be proposed by their national governments. John Bruton’s decision to self-nominate for the presidency of the council therefore raised eyebrows. The Irish Government put on the green jersey for the cameras and expressed itself supportive of Bruton’s campaign. It was a costless endorsement, because Irish officials and Ministers know that Bruton, for all his talents, has no real prospect of getting the position.
That’s why remarks by Brian Cowen and Micheál Martin included qualifying clauses like “if he is there with a great chance”. They know he is not.
If, as expected, the European People’s Party gets the presidency of the Council, the high representative job will fall to be filled by a socialist. London is one of a handful of member states with a socialist party in power, leading to a focus on British foreign secretary David Miliband. Indeed, there is some talk of Tony Blair, humbled by failure to be selected as president of the council, as a more suitable candidate for the job.
Once the president and foreign representative are in place, attention will turn to the commission. There is a real concern that the next commission could be almost all-male, which has led José Barroso to write to Brian Cowen and other leaders asking for female nominees. In the current commission, women hold many of the key portfolios, including agriculture, foreign affairs, trade, consumer rights and regional development. Nominating a woman would springboard Ireland’s nominee into a key commissionership.
Fortunately, in Máire Geoghegan Quinn, we have a candidate who is qualified, willing and able, and whose appointment will not upset the Government’s delicate Dáil majority. Like all our previous commissioners, she has cabinet-level experience. In 1979 she made history by becoming our first woman minister since Countess Markievicz. She was one of the best ministers to serve in either Haughey’s or Reynolds’s governments. She proved her mettle in an economic department and in justice, and during her period as minister for European affairs during the 1990 presidency. Indeed, were it not for the circumstances of the collapse of the Reynolds government in 1994, she might have been our first woman taoiseach.
Since she left Irish politics, she has served nine years on the court responsible for oversight of the EU’s budget. When speculation and squabbling about the various European jobs is over, MGQ is likely to be the only Irish winner.
